'Tis the Season...

Hi, and welcome back!  Technological problems have prevented my regular posting, and those issues persist to this day.  Nevertheless, today is Black Friday.  It's a glorious morning here in Tampa Bay.  It's maybe 50 or 55 degrees, brilliant sunshine, and only high, wispy clouds.  In mid-July, when it's 96 degrees outside, with 98% humidity, in the middle of our daily torrential thunderstorm, I know that months of weather like today's are the reason I live in Florida.

In politics, there is a lull... sort of like the quiet that falls over the main street of an old-West town just before a climactic gunfight.  The House grew a collective set of balls and passed a decent healthcare bill that included a Public Option.  Then, the Senate prepared an even better bill, that covers more people, trims more from the defecit, and contains Public Option.  But, in trying to get it to the floor, The Senate was almost stymied in its attempt by Sen. Joe Lieberman, (I-Aetna), who vowed that he would kill any bill with a Public Option.  Still, the Senate was able to pass the procedural vote to allow the bill to be debated on the floor. (Sort of like an argument on whether or not to have an argument.  But hey, that's how our government works!) Luckily, that vote passed 60 - 39 (one Republican was absent).  Currently, the Senate (and President Obama) have conceded that this will not be a bipartisan bill, and that, not matter what they strip out of the bill, and how watered down it gets, there will be NO REPUBLICANS VOTING FOR THIS BILL.  If you'll remember, I said that right here months ago.  So all it's done right?  Democrats have the 60 votes, and healthcare reform should be a foregone conclusion, right?

Of course not!  The threat to reform now comes to us from within the very party trying to get it passed:  the Democrats!  Conservative Dem's are complaining about the depth and breadth of the Public Option.  Senator Liberman (I-Blue Cross, also special envoy from Blue Shield) insists that no bill at all is preferable to one with a Public Option.  And, thanks to a last minute flinch from the House Democrats, abortion is now an issue.  Abortion... really?!

Introduced by Representative Bart Stupak (D-Michigan), a provision bans any Government insurance plan from covering abortions, except in cases or rape, incest, or where the life of the mother is in danger.  But it doesn't stop there.  People receiving subsidies to buy insurance are not allowed to use that subsidy to buy a plan that does cover abortion.  And they are still prohibited, even if they pay for that plan with their own money.  And finally, insurance plans that participate in any government exchange would be banned from covering abortions.  As would be expected, conservative Democrats in the Senate have picked up this same rallying cry, and are threatening to make this part of their discussion as well.  It's funny how the more conservative a person leans, the louder his complaints about government intervention in his or her health care.  Except about abortions... then, it's the government's God-given right to control any woman's choices in that painful and deeply personal decision.

Anyway, deliberations begin in the Senate next week.  Will a bill for comprehensive healthcare reform finally get to a President's desk?  If so, what will it look like?  Let me hazard a guess:

Yes, the President will get a bill to sign.  It will have a robust public option.  Abortion coverage will remain status-quo.  And, to this author's surprise, it will get no less than 1 but no more than 3 Republican votes.  Senator Lieberman will blink.  And passage of real heath care reform, even a weaker one now to set up for a stronger one in the years to come, will insure Democratic control of Congress for the next decade.  Just you watch!